The 2026 French Open has come and gone, leaving Aryna Sabalenka to reflect on yet another Grand Slam opportunity slipping through her fingers. It's a familiar feeling for the Belarusian tennis star, who has consistently reached the latter stages of major tournaments but has struggled to convert her dominance into championship wins. This time, it was the young Diana Shnaider who emerged victorious, leaving Sabalenka to ponder what might have been.
Sabalenka's journey to the French Open quarter-finals was not without its challenges. While she has a proud record of not losing before the quarter-finals since 2023, her performance on clay courts, where she has won three times in Madrid, has been less than stellar. The high altitude of Madrid makes the conditions similar to a hard court, which may explain her success there. However, her build-up to Roland Garros was not ideal, with six match points squandered in a quarter-final defeat by Hailey Baptiste in Madrid, and a set and break lead slipping against Sorana Cirstea in Rome.
Despite her impressive record, Sabalenka has a history of struggling with the pressure of the latter stages, particularly during her period as the world's best player. She was the heavy favourite to beat Madison Keys in the 2025 Australian Open final but came unstuck, and a flurry of mistakes saw her squander a break lead in the deciding set against Elena Rybakina. At last year's French Open, she played what she described as the 'worst final' of her life, hitting 70 unforced errors in windy conditions.
In her post-match news conference, Sabalenka's emotions were raw as she claimed she wanted to quit tennis. The swirling breeze on Court Philippe Chatrier, which also affected her loss to Coco Gauff last year, hindered her sharp footwork and poor court positioning. Her preference for first-strike tennis, which is not suited to windy conditions, did not help, and she did not adjust.
'The one thing you need to do in the wind is increase your margins,' said former British player Naomi Broady. 'When that is not your game style and there is the refusal to have a plan B, every now and then it is going to really hurt.'
Sabalenka's loss means either Shnaider, Polish qualifier Maja Chwalinska, Russian eighth seed Mirra Andreeva, or Ukraine's Marta Kostyuk will lift the French Open trophy on Saturday night. Sabalenka, meanwhile, will be left wondering what might have been.
Personally, I think it's fascinating to see how Sabalenka's consistent dominance in the latter stages of major tournaments has not translated into championship wins. What makes this particularly interesting is the contrast between her impressive record and her struggles in high-pressure situations. In my opinion, this raises a deeper question about the mental fortitude required to convert dominance into victory. If you take a step back and think about it, it's clear that Sabalenka's inability to handle the pressure of the latter stages has cost her dearly in the past.
One thing that immediately stands out is the impact of windy conditions on Sabalenka's performance. What many people don't realize is that her preference for first-strike tennis, which is not suited to windy conditions, has cost her dearly in the past. If she had a plan B, she might have been able to adjust and come out on top. This raises a broader question about the importance of adaptability in tennis, and how players can prepare for unexpected conditions.
Looking ahead, Sabalenka will need to stay calm in difficult moments and find a solution to her overemotional tendencies. She has reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon on her past three appearances, so she has the ability to bounce back. However, she will need to find a way to handle the pressure of the latter stages and convert her dominance into championship wins. It will be fascinating to see how she responds to these challenges in the future.
